Medienecho zur Sturmschätzung YLENIA/ZEYNEP/ANTONIA

Artemis: Billion plus storm losses expected from Dudley (Ylenia) & Eunice (Zeynep)

Artemis, vom 21. Februar 2022

Insurance and reinsurance markets are facing losses into the billions after the impacts of two severe European windstorms, Dudley (Ylenia) and Eunice (Zeynep), while the jet stream continues to drive low pressure systems across the Atlantic and towards the continent.

storm-wind-wavesDudley and Eunice are the UK names for the two recent and most high-profile European windstorms, while Ylenia and Zeynep are the names used across much of Europe for the same two low pressure systems.

Storm Dudley (windstorm Ylenia) impacted the UK and then crossed Western and Central Europe on February 16th and 17th, with hurricane-force wind gusts that exceeded 80 mph widely experienced.

Widespread wind-related property damage was reported across Europe from the United Kingdom to Poland, with Germany one of the countries badly affected.

In total, more than 1 million people lost power from this storm.

Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe risk modelling and meteorology unit of insurance and reinsurance broker Aon, said that total economic and insured losses from windstorm Dudley (Ylenia) were expected to minimally reach into the hundreds of millions of Euro.

PwC said last Thursday that Dudley (Ylenia) was expected to drive between UK £40 million and £75 million ($54.5m to $102 million) of insured losses in Britain.

“The losses will mainly be in respect of damage to homes, commercial offices and vehicles from falling trees and flying debris,” Mohammad Khan, PwC UK’s leader of general insurance explained of Dudley.

Actuarial consultancy Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) commented on the impacts of storm Ylenia in Germany and gave an insurance industry loss estimate of EUR 500 million.

“We estimate the insured loss in Germany at EUR 500 million,” Onnen Siems, Managing Director of MSK explained.

“Due to the large-scale event, the amount of damage is distributed more evenly in the market and shouldn’t relate to reinsurance programs, Siems added, saying that “A loss of this size occurs every one to two years”

“Other countries such as Great Britain, Denmark and Poland are also affected, but most of the damage in Europe is likely to come from Germany.”

Storm Eunice (Zeynep):
A day later, Storm Eunice (windstorm Zeynep) impacted Ireland and the United Kingdom first, before crossing into other parts of Western and Central Europe.

Storm Eunice (Zeynep) was expected to be a stronger and more damaging European windstorm and before the storm even arrived forecast models were indicating that extensive damage could be possible.

The weather system that became storm Eunice (Zeynep) deepened rapidly and was termed a weather bomb in the media, while meteorologists warned of a potential sting jet that could drive intense wind gusts.

Storm Eunice (windstorm Zeynep) crossed the United Kingdom and other parts of Western and Central Europe on February 18th and 19th, with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph experienced.

The UK recorded a record wind gust of 122 mph off the Needles of the Isle of Wight, the strongest wind speed recorded ever in the United Kingdom.

PwC said that UK insured losses from Eunice (Zeynep) were expected to reach UK £200 million ($272 million) to £350 million ($476 million), with property damage, business interruption and travel disruption seen as the main drivers.

Khan said, “As with Storm Dudley, insurance losses will mainly be in respect of damage to homes, commercial properties and vehicles from falling trees and flying debris.”

Germany actuarial consultancy Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) commented on windstorm Zeynep’s impacts in Germany as well and expect the insurance industry bill will be higher than Ylenia, with insured losses likely to rise towards EUR 1 billion, according to the firm.

“For Germany, we are assuming insured losses of over EUR 900 million,” Onnen Siems explained.

“In Germany, Zeynep is the most intense storm since Kyrill 2007, which was the first storm in recent history to cover the entire country with high wind speeds and caused insured losses of more than 3 billion euros in today’s values,” Siems added. “Zeynep will not be that expensive, but it can come in the damage region of storm Friederike in 2018.”

Zeynep brought high wind speeds to Germany, including gusts of 162 km/h at a lighthouse on the coast. They were accompanied by storm surges on the North Sea, for example a “very severe storm surge” in Hamburg with 3.5m above the mean high water level.

Windstorm Friederike drove insured losses of close to EUR 1.2 billion in Germany when it struck in 2018.

“The damage caused by Zeynep can possibly come even closer to that of Friedrike, depending e.g. on the inflation rate and increases in construction prices,” Siems said.

Insurance and perhaps reinsurance market losses are expected to reach into the billions from these two storms, it appears, while the spell of stormy weather continues with storm Franklin striking the UK late Sunday and parts of Europe into Monday.

Flooding is also increasingly seen as a driver of loss, after repeat storm systems drop more heavy rain onto already soaked ground.

Another named storm system is also forecast as possible for the UK later this week, with storm Gladys expected around Thursday, although likely to be less severe, current forecasts suggest.

Loss aggregation company PERILS AG has placed storms Dudley (Ylenia) and Eunice (Zeynep) under investigation and is expected to report on the insured loss total, as these will clearly exceed its reporting threshold of EUR 200 million.

Moody’s analyst Dominic Simpson commented on the impacts of the storms in the UK, saying, “Storms Dudley, Eunice, and Franklin could cost UK insurers more than £400 million in claims, primarily impacting those providing property coverage to homeowners and businesses. Considering the impact on insurers of similar-sized storms in the past, we believe that whilst denting their weather loss budgets, UK insurers on the whole should be able to comfortably absorb these losses within their earnings during 2022.”

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Artemis: European windstorm insured losses head towards EUR 3bn

Artemis, vom 22. Februar 2022

Forecasts for insurance and reinsurance market losses from the recent spell of severe European windstorms are heading towards EUR 3 billion (approx. US $3.4bn), as reports coming from the UK, Germany and the Netherlands alone get close to that number.

As we reported yesterday, insurance and reinsurance markets are facing losses into the billions after the impacts of two of the severe European windstorms, Dudley (Ylenia) and Eunice (Zeynep).

Early estimates from PwC placed the UK insured loss from these two windstorms at up to UK £425 million, while German actuarial consultancy Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) said it expected around EUR 1.4 billion of insured losses in Germany.

As we reported at the time, a third European windstorm named Franklin in the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands, or Antonia in Germany and the rest of Europe, was also set to drive additional impacts and losses.

Now, some estimates have emerged incorporating that third severe windstorm and it takes the overall insurance market loss from this storm activity towards the EUR 3 billion range.

Windstorm Franklin (Antonia) drove additional damage in the UK, but no updates to PwC’s estimate are available, so to-date our sources in the market appear to be working on an estimate of UK £380 million to £480 million (EUR 450m to EUR 575m) for the three storms for the UK only.

German actuaries Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) have updated their insured loss estimate to incorporate storm Franklin (Antonia) and now suggest the three storms may have driven around EUR 1.6 billion of losses.

“The storm field of the Antonia low (international name Franklin) crossed Germany in the night of February 20th to 21st, 2022 and caused insured losses of 200 million euros,” explained Onnen Siems, Managing Director of MSK.

He added, “The total damage amount of 1.6 billion euros for Ylenia, Zeynep and Antonia is easily exceeded by individual storm events such as Kyrill 2007, but it still represents a turbulent start to the damage year 2022.

“The insurance industry can handle claims of this magnitude well. However, the year is still young and further storm or flood events could put the division in the red like in the previous year.”

The Dutch Association of Insurers, of the Netherlands, has now also made an industry loss estimate for these three European windstorms and suggests the bill for the countries insurers will reach minimum EUR 500 million.

“Insurers receive record numbers of damage reports due to these storms and expect a lot of consequential damage,” the Association said.

So, adding up the estimates for the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands, we come to a potential insurance and reinsurance market loss in the region of EUR 2.6 billion to EUR 2.7 billion, as reported.

But given the Netherlands is forecasting insured losses there will rise above its estimated EUR 500 million, plus this does not include any data on windstorm damages in Belgium, France, Poland and other affected countries, it is likely the eventual insured loss tally across these three European windstorms will surpass EUR 3 billion (around US $3.4bn).

There are implications for the reinsurance market, not least because these three storms impacted northern and western Europe over the space of just a few days, from the 16th to 21st February, bringing the hours clause into focus.

Analysts have noted that the spate of windstorms have pressured some European primary insurance company shares.

One company mentioned by analysts at JP Morgan is NN Group, the insurer that recently sponsored its first catastrophe bond, the European windstorm exposed Orange Capital Re DAC (Series 2021-1).

NN Group operates on a 72 hours clause in its reinsurance, which suggests two of the three windstorms we’re discussing above could qualify under the terms of its reinsurance.

NN Group has an EUR 75 million per event retention, while the Orange Capital cat bond only attaches at EUR 325 million. So without a doubt the cat bond is safe.

But there are reinsurance implications from such a time-compressed European windstorm outbreak and it will be interesting to see how some European insurance carriers leverage their hours clauses to bring more than one storm under a single claim, or whether it’s preferable in some cases to keep them separate.

At the individual level, the losses from these windstorms still won’t affect any pure Euro wind catastrophe bonds, while there aren’t any aggregate Euro wind cat bonds in the market at the reinsurance level.

There are still implications for the erosion of aggregate deductibles and that could also get more interesting, depending on how hours clauses are applied.

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VWheute: "Antonia" & Co. verursachen einen Versicherungsschaden in Milliardenhöhe

VWheute, vom 22. Februar 2022

Die letzten Tage waren in Deutschland besonders stürmisch. „Ylenia“, „Zeynep“ und „Antonia“ haben das Land ordentlich durcheinandergewirbelt – ganz zum Leidwesen der Versicherer. Laut einer ersten Schadenschätzung von Aon dürften die Schäden für die Versicherer in Milliardenhöhe liegen.

Demnach hätten die Stürme besonders in der Mitte und im Norden Deutschlands erhebliche Schäden verursacht: Der versicherte Schaden liegt nach erster Schätzung für die Stürme zusammen bei etwa 1,6 Milliarden Euro. Dabei entfallen rund 500 Mio. Euro auf „Ylenia“, etwa eine Milliarde Euro auf „Zeynep“ und rund 100 Mio. Euro auf „Antonia“. Dies entspricht etwa 50 Prozent der gesamten versicherten Sturmschäden eines durchschnittlichen vollständigen Jahres.

„Wir gehen davon aus, dass „Ylenia“ und „Zeynep“ zu den schadenträchtigsten Stürmen in Deutschland zählen. Die Schäden wären noch höher ausgefallen, wenn die Bäume schon Blätter getragen hätten, die wegen des Segeleffektes noch mehr Bäume zum Umsturz gebracht hätten. Auch die relativ frühen Vorwarnungen trugen sicherlich zu einer Schadenreduktion bei“, sagt Jan-Oliver Thofern, Chairman von Aon Deutschland.

Erste Schadenschätzungen der aktuariellen Beratungsgesellschaft Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) zufolge haben vor allem „Ylenia“ und „Zeynep“ einen versicherten Schaden von rund 1,4 Mrd. Euro verursacht. Dabei beziffern die Aktuare den Schaden durch „Ylenia“ auf etwa 500 Mio. Euro. „Zeynep“ hatte bislang einen Schaden von rund 900 Mio. Euro verursacht. Für „Antonia“ hat MSK bislang noch keine Schadenschätzung abgegeben.

Zuletzt hatte der Sturm „Nadia“ in Deutschland dreistellige Millionenkosten verursacht. Laut einer Aon-Rechnung waren diese mit 150 Mio. aber weitaus geringer als bei „Ylenia“. Sturmtief „Roxana“ verursachte zudem laut MSK Anfang Februar 2022 Schäden von rund 100 Mio. Euro.

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